Belief half-life

Radioactive materials have half-lives. What if beliefs do too?

Most of us are trained to keep our half-lives long. School awards correctness. When I take up a belief, I think it's true. Changing this belief is admission I was incorrect. Social pressures extend half-lives. In a Pew survey, +80% of teens inherit their parents' political party. Sunk costs stretch half-lives further: years acting on a belief feel wasted if you drop it. At the same time, new experiences naturally challenge the stability of convictions.

So how do you ensure adequate half-life calibration? I don't know. Right now I ask myself: Am I prioritizing correctness over truth? yes -> minimize half-life Am I confident my experience will later prove my conviction? yes -> maximize half-life

Organizations face a version of this too. Patrick Collison writes about replacement rate. Interestingly, the mind is different from an organization. When a company fails, the market learns; when a person's convictions fail, only they can.